Estimated sustainable income (4% rule)
$5,000 / month
A $1,500,000 portfolio can support withdrawals of roughly $5,000 per month — $60,000 per year — using the widely cited 4% rule. A more cautious 3.5% rate would mean about $4,375 per month.
Open the calculator$5,000
$60,000
$4,375
More conservative
$6,250
More aggressive
The arithmetic is straightforward: multiply your savings by a withdrawal rate to get annual income, then divide by twelve. The hard part is choosing a rate you can sustain. The 4% rule comes from historical studies of US market returns and is designed to survive roughly 30 years of retirement, but it is a guideline, not a guarantee.
The right rate for you depends on how long your retirement might last, how flexible your spending is, and what other income (Social Security, a pension, part-time work) you expect. The table below shows what $1,500,000 produces across the range most planners consider.
| Withdrawal rate | Monthly income | Annual income | How long the money lasts | Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $3,750 | $45,000 | 60+ years | Very conservative |
| 3.5% | $4,375 | $52,500 | 60+ years | Conservative |
| 4% | $5,000 | $60,000 | 60+ years | The classic "4% rule" |
| 4.5% | $5,625 | $67,500 | 60+ years | Slightly aggressive |
| 5% | $6,250 | $75,000 | about 43 years | Aggressive |
Longevity assumes the dollar amount of the first-year withdrawal is kept constant in today's dollars. With an inflation-adjusted return of about 4.4% per year, rates at or below that level never exhaust the portfolio in this model — real markets are more volatile, which is why many planners stay at 4% or lower.
It depends on your spending and other income. For 2024, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put average spending for households headed by someone 65 or older at roughly $5,000 per month, but many retirees live comfortably on much less — especially with a paid-off home or Social Security on top. Compare $5,000 against your own monthly budget rather than an average.
No. It is based on historical US market data and assumed a 30-year retirement with a diversified portfolio. Poor returns early in retirement ("sequence-of-returns risk"), longer lifespans, or high fees can all undermine it. Many planners treat 3.5–4% as a starting point and adjust spending in bad years.
No — the figures here are what the $1,500,000 portfolio alone can generate. Any Social Security benefit or pension is income on top of this, which is why a portfolio that looks modest on paper can still fund a comfortable retirement.
These are pre-tax figures. How much you keep depends on the account type: withdrawals from traditional 401(k)s and IRAs are taxed as ordinary income, Roth withdrawals are generally tax-free, and taxable brokerage accounts owe capital-gains tax on the growth portion. Budget for taxes when translating these numbers into spendable income.
Yes, and flexible ("guardrail") strategies often outperform a rigid rule. Cutting spending after a bad market year meaningfully improves the odds your money lasts. The longevity column in the table assumes a fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawal, which is the more pessimistic case.
Open the full calculator with $1,500,000 prefilled to adjust your age, contributions, return assumptions, and withdrawal strategy — and see a year-by-year chart of your plan.
Try the calculator with $1,500,000Disclaimer: This page is an educational estimate based on simplified assumptions, not financial advice. Market returns vary, and your taxes, fees, and personal circumstances will change the outcome. Consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making retirement decisions.